2 extracts from this week's newsletter (
http://www.vulcantothesky.org/6monthreview.html)
1: From Dr. Pleming's statement:
The work done on the design of the new hangar also generated an estimate for the total cost of construction and fit-out – some £2.8million, including start-up working capital. Unlike many other charities, the Trust does not have an endowment or capital reserves, so the plan is to find an investor or consortium to fund the build, with the added attraction of contributing to the development of the Airport.
In parallel with the planning activity, a Business Plan for the Heritage Hangar has been created, based on the successful business model in Hangar 3 of visitor tours, events, merchandising and catering. This Business Plan has been to subject of extensive review and will continue to be updated, as we need it to be as robust as possible. The Business Plan is aimed at demonstrating that an investor funding the construction of the new Heritage Hangar will be assured of an acceptable return on an investment.
We are already talking to prospective investors, and expect to gain valuable feedback on optimising the attractiveness of our proposition over coming weeks. As with any charity embarking on a new direction, we are drawing on advice from various quarters, especially from those who have experience of similar projects. It’s difficult to be definite on timescales, but we very much hope to open for business in the new Heritage Hangar in 2018. If there is anyone reading this who believes they have the relevant experience to help, please contact meand 2: from the Q&A section of the same (answers by Trustee Dr. Stephen Liddle)
At the moment, the Trust is working with the airport to deliver a new home for XH558 where she will be permanently under cover and accessible, much like she was in H3. The aircraft are currently outside, which given that they will be maintained, is acceptable for the short time proposed. The design for the hangar is complete and we anticipate planning permission to be achieved in the coming months. At the same time, the Trust is very actively pursuing the funding required to complete the project. The model proposed would see the hangar constructed and then leased to us for a period of at least ten years. There is a clear business case for this proposal, in that the developer would have a valuable commercial building on the site of a growing airport at the end. By that time, the Trust would expect to move to the final phase of the Etna project, in a new building that will be planned at the airport
The construction of the new hangar will take about one year in total. The Trust is confident from its experience of H3 that the costs of the lease can be met from the attraction itself.I am concerned!
Back in or around early 2015 I posed a question about the funding and building of ETNA and the reply was that it was planned by acquiring funds was at an early stage with near to nothing actually raised - it was okay being optomistic abut was that being realistic? - it appears no.
Now we see a planning submission for a smaller establishment with promises that it will be ready by 2018, but once again the Trust is looking for investors so really it's deja-vu but the 'vu' is somewhat smaller. So that 2018 date, although it's planned has little or nothing in hard cash to make it happen at this stage. The submission has only just been presented so planning permission is probably going to take 2 months IF it's straight forward with no objections (i.e. end of November at the earliest), then assuming the funds are there to build it by then a contract has to be awarded - probably at least another 2 months (based on how long contract awards used to take in my days of civil engineering) so that's end of January. The newsletter/update says 12 month construction period so that immediately takes it with a sensible optomistic approach to end of January 2019. So how has 2018 been proposed?
The Trust is talking to prospective investors over the coming weeks - surely that should have been done before now, IF planning permission is granted (and I personally think it will be) albeit with a delayed start even if funding is in place then the funds need to be in place soon to avoid a year's delay. Why? those pesky newts:
from the government website (they have an extensive list of dos and donts re newts):
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/great-crested-newts-surveys-and-mitigation-for-development-projectstrap between mid-February and mid-June to remove breeding adults
remove vegetation that supports eggs so it will be end of June before construction can actually start so unless that 12 month period includes the 4 months to remove the newts then it will be mid June 2019 before the hangar is completed.
The plan relies on an investor accepting a reasonable return for 10 years before ETNA is ready - so now it's 10 years for ETNA, can the Trust really predict 10 years ahead with any confidence? Supposing they get the investor for this hangar but after 10 years they are 'out on their ear' with no ETNA then it will have just gone a 10 year full circle albeit with much higher costs. It seems that after almost 3 years since my question there is still no investor coming forward even for something which will have commercial benefit in both the short and long term for that investor or more importantly for ETNA - isn't this just delaying the inevitable?
In 10 years time most of us who remember the Vulcan will either be dead, in nursing homes or (if young enough) will be watching other aircraft rather than one that has been generally stuck in a hangar forgotten by the many and only seen running by the rich few, in short I don't think the funding or the enthusiasm from the public will be there.
Previously I said I believed Doncaster was the right place during the flying phase but once flying finished then a commercial base was risky. There have been good reasons put forward for not going to Bruntingthorpe or Elvington and the commercial aspect applies certainly to the former but to try to create a one aircraft museum from nothing was over optomisitc I'm afraid. 558 should have gone to an existing collection even if it were only able to fast taxi in the short to medium term, lets face it , there hasn't been much taxiing to date and that was seen as a big carrot for being preserved at Doncaster, had she been somewhere in an existing collection where taxi runs could have gone on from the start at modest cost (not with the constraints of a commercial civil airport) then the interest at least during the short/medium term would have been greater and the chance of raising money to fund some sort of hangar (if one wasn't already available) would have been far greater.
We have to accept that moving 558 now is unrealistic unless she is dismantled and then reassembled as a static exhibit but if the new hangar can't be funded (and it appears difficult) then maybe that is the best option as at least she can be back in some sort of public eye. I hope the funds materialse but to be honest to me the signs are not optomistic.
